Election Bettors on Prediction Markets Set for $450 Million Payout

After Donald Trump’s recent election victory, bettors on popular prediction platforms are gearing up for an anticipated payout of nearly $450 million, according to a Reuters report. These markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, saw a notable surge in Trump’s odds close to the end of the race, significantly diverging from conventional polling data, which had forecast a tighter contest.

According to a Princeton neuroscience professor, prediction markets may have an edge over traditional polling by capturing “crowd wisdom” in situations with limited concrete data. This approach enables bettors to assess trends and make predictions based on collective insights.

Kalshi investors showed their confidence in this outcome, reportedly securing tens of millions in short-term financing to ensure they could meet customer payouts, as detailed by TechCrunch. In one standout case, a high-stakes Polymarket user, dubbed the “Polymarket whale,” placed $40 million in Trump-related bets and could double those earnings to $80 million if Trump secures the popular vote.